Comparison of universal lockdown and targeted protection of risk persons

The following table compares the implementation of Corona Reduit together with targeted isolation by individual risk in comparison to a universal lockdown:

Scope of countermeasuresuniversal lockdown(voluntary) isolation by individual risk profile
Epidemiological impactuncertainherd immunity among low risk majority
effective reproduction numbergenerally somewhat loweredselective by risk profile
Spread impactmidly suppresiveselective herd immunity among low risk persons
overall death toll (longterm)higher (non selective infection)lower (herd immunity eventually slows spread to high risk persons)
health care system capacity usagehigher (non selective infection)lower (selective spread to low risk persons)
impact on next wavenext lockdown needed, no immunity(degree of) herd immunity limits spread and severity
Social impactuniversal isolationmostly intergenerational
share of population affectedeveryonehigh risk persons (voluntary)
childrenstuck at home with parentsin regular education and caretaking environment
working agelargely stuck at home (with children)working
seniorsstuck at homevoluntary isolation with specific services to take care of their needs
Economic impactdevastatinglimited (mostly retirees)
GDP growth> -25%mildly negative (consumption by retirees subdued)
labor marketcollapses, needs life supportbarely affected (mostly retirees at risk)
global tradecollapses, supply chains disruptedbarely affected (mostly retirees at risk)
government debtexplodes, deficits > 10% GDPrises slightly (expenses for risk person protection)
pension systemcollapses (negative returns)barely affected (mostly retirees at risk)
Political impactstate of emergencylimited, no state of emergency
division of powersceremonialregular operations
fundamental rightsmassively restrictedminimal restrictions
regulatory burdenmicromanagementstandard framework
organisational readinessoverwhelming complexityachievable (pandemic plan)

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